Title/European places/Bottom Three implications for Premiership matches 61-70

Firstly by combining the performance of teams in ’13-14 and ’14-15, here how the Team Rating currently projects the Premiership to finish graphically:

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 10.37.01 AM

And in table form:

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 10.37.31 AM

So, onto this weekend matches – what are the implications of each of the results on the teams playing the games?

If you want to skip down to a particular game the matches are in the following order

1. Hull v Crystal Palace
2. Leicester v Burnley
3. Liverpool v West Brom
4. Sunderland v Stoke
5. Swansea v Newcastle
6. Aston Villa v Man City
7. Man United v Everton
8. Chelsea v Arsenal
9. Tottenham v Southampton
10. West Ham v QPR

1. Hull v Crystal Palace
Yawn.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.00.10 AM

2. Leicester v Burnley
Burnley are in real trouble with anything other than a win.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.02.30 AM

3. Liverpool v West Brom
LFC are one of the front runners for the 3rd/4th places this season, but there are a lot of teams who aren’t all that far behind.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.04.30 AM

4. Sunderland v Stoke
Meh.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.07.16 AM

5. Swansea v Newcastle
There are a lot of most-likely meaningless games on Saturday. It gets better on Sunday.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.22.45 AM

6. Aston Villa v Man City
City didn’t lose any ground to Chelsea last week, but they didn’t gain any either. It’s another important game for them.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.09.25 AM

7. Man United v Everton
Two teams fighting for similar spots in the table mean this one has big implications. The odds of each team playing in Europe will increase >10 % with a win.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.11.07 AM

8. Chelsea v Arsenal
Both teams have faced soft opposition so far this season. Chelsea will be fairly heavy favourites, and can put a significant dent in Arsenal’s top four aspirations with a win, whilst Arsenal can seriously damage Chelsea’s advantage in the title race.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.14.30 AM

9. Tottenham v Southampton
I think this will be a fun game to watch, and the implications are suitably large. Spurs need a win to have a coin flip chance of getting into any of the European competitions next season.
The Team Ratings keep liking Southampton and they just keep racking up victories. It’s incredibly unlikely but a So’ton win coupled with losses for Chelsea and City would take the Saints up to a 7% chance of the title…

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.16.47 AM

10. West Ham v QPR

Now this is a classic six-pointer. There’s only about a 25% chance that neither of these teams are relegated at the end of the seasons, and a 15% chance that both of them go.

Screen Shot 2014-10-02 at 8.18.41 AM

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