Firstly by combining the performance of teams in ’13-14 and ’14-15, here how the Team Rating currently projects the Premiership to finish graphically:
And in table form:
So, onto this weekend matches – what are the implications of each of the results on the teams playing the games?
If you want to skip down to a particular game the matches are in the following order
1. Hull v Crystal Palace
2. Leicester v Burnley
3. Liverpool v West Brom
4. Sunderland v Stoke
5. Swansea v Newcastle
6. Aston Villa v Man City
7. Man United v Everton
8. Chelsea v Arsenal
9. Tottenham v Southampton
10. West Ham v QPR
1. Hull v Crystal Palace
Yawn.
2. Leicester v Burnley
Burnley are in real trouble with anything other than a win.
3. Liverpool v West Brom
LFC are one of the front runners for the 3rd/4th places this season, but there are a lot of teams who aren’t all that far behind.
4. Sunderland v Stoke
Meh.
5. Swansea v Newcastle
There are a lot of most-likely meaningless games on Saturday. It gets better on Sunday.
6. Aston Villa v Man City
City didn’t lose any ground to Chelsea last week, but they didn’t gain any either. It’s another important game for them.
7. Man United v Everton
Two teams fighting for similar spots in the table mean this one has big implications. The odds of each team playing in Europe will increase >10 % with a win.
8. Chelsea v Arsenal
Both teams have faced soft opposition so far this season. Chelsea will be fairly heavy favourites, and can put a significant dent in Arsenal’s top four aspirations with a win, whilst Arsenal can seriously damage Chelsea’s advantage in the title race.
9. Tottenham v Southampton
I think this will be a fun game to watch, and the implications are suitably large. Spurs need a win to have a coin flip chance of getting into any of the European competitions next season.
The Team Ratings keep liking Southampton and they just keep racking up victories. It’s incredibly unlikely but a So’ton win coupled with losses for Chelsea and City would take the Saints up to a 7% chance of the title…
10. West Ham v QPR
Now this is a classic six-pointer. There’s only about a 25% chance that neither of these teams are relegated at the end of the seasons, and a 15% chance that both of them go.
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