Filed under Distributions

The title race – 8 games to go

It’s getting a bit closer. United have been dominant in their last three games, and their list of comparable teams has improved to reflect this, City have been almost as good but not got the results to show for it The same plot and table as before Expected points Chance of winning the title Man … Continue reading

The title race

Just a quick post looking at the title race. I’m focusing on the two Manchester teams – there’s a non-zero percent chance that Arsenal or Spurs win the league but it’s very close to zero. First up the underlying numbers for the two teams, total shots ratio (TSR) – the best indicator I have of … Continue reading

PDO – part I

My last post outlined the origins of PDO and why it is useful in hockey. Now I’m going to apply it for football in the same way I have looked at shooting and save percentage. So firstly here’s a plot of PDO against a teams shots on target ratio. This mirrors the lack of a … Continue reading

Save percentage – part I

I’m going to approach save percentage in a similar way to how I’ve started looking at shooting percentage. Again I’ve plotted the team save percentage versus their shots on target ratio (SOTR) to determine whether better teams save a larger proportion of shots. There’s the same trend here as for shooting percentage, better teams do … Continue reading

Shooting percentage – part I

Shooting is obviously an important component of a football game. The best teams spend more time near their opponents goal, take more shots and score more goals. But are the extra goals explained by their larger volume of shots take or do they score a larger proportion of the shots they take? Below is a plot … Continue reading

Home advantage

The last set of posts have outlined what we could have already guessed – teams perform better at home than away. They score more goals, take more shots on target and total shots. Looking on a game by game basis how often is it that a home team out-performs the away team? One way is … Continue reading

Distribution of shots in the premiership

After covering goals and shots on target it’s time to look at total shots. First the table of stats. Mean Standard deviation 95% max 95% min Total 22.75 5.51 33.77 11.73 Home 12.91 4.84 22.60 3.22 Away 9.84 4.16 18.15 1.52 The 95% min and max are the limits between which, statistically, 95% of results … Continue reading

Distribution of goals in the premiership

This is the first of three posts over the next week or so. I’ll make them as informative as possible but at the end of the day I doubt there’ll be any groundbreaking conclusions. I still think they’ll prove useful as representations of some fundamental principles that should prove to be useful resources in the … Continue reading