Introducing TSR2.4

Obviously, given the ample evidence that TSR is the best metric I can find in the data available to me in terms of predicting future performance (link 1, link 2) it makes sense to try and improve upon that metric. This is the first attempt to do so and I can think of a couple … Continue reading →

The title race

Just a quick post looking at the title race. I’m focusing on the two Manchester teams – there’s a non-zero percent chance that Arsenal or Spurs win the league but it’s very close to zero. First up the underlying numbers for the two teams, total shots ratio (TSR) – the best indicator I have of … Continue reading →

Predicting future performance – revisited

A long time ago I took a look at a range of statistics to determine which was the best predictor of future performance. I did this by looking at the performance of a team one season and seeing which statistic showed the least regression towards the mean. I now have a much larger data set … Continue reading →

The surprising form of Lincoln City – reviewed

Back in February Lincoln City were in the midst of a remarkable run of form that prompted me to write a series of posts regarding whether they were actually as good as the results were suggesting. To recap the Imps began the season with a 21 game stretch during which they scored 19 points and … Continue reading →

Sh%, Sv% & PDO, part n

This is a post designed to illustrate what I’ve previously written about shooting percentage (parts I and II), save percentage (parts I and II) and PDO (parts I and II). The aim is to show graphically how regression to the mean occurs. The method I’ve used is as follows. First I’ve determined each teams sh% … Continue reading →

Hull City 08-09 & West Ham United 06-07: Two very different ways of staying up

Both Hull City (in 08-09) and West Ham (in 06-07) survived on the final day of the premiership season. Loooking back at those teams they were both effectively saved thanks to a run of 9 games. For Hull it was their first 9, where they picked up 20 points and looked like they could be … Continue reading →

PDO – part II

My two previous posts have looked at how much team shooting percentage and team save percentage regress to the mean in consecutive seasons. Now I’m going to do the same for PDO. As a quick reminder PDO is calculated as follows: PDO = 10 X (Shooting percentage + Save percentage) As the premiership average sh% … Continue reading →

Save percentage – part II

Last time I took a look at team shooting percentage and came to the conclusion that it isn’t a repeatable skill, regressing >60% towards the mean over consecutive seasons. This time I’m going to look at team save percentage in the same manner. When I initially looked at save percentage I found that all teams … Continue reading →

Shooting percentage – part II

When I last looked at shooting percentage I found two things. The first was that there isn’t a large difference in sh% between a good and bad team; a top 4 team will have an average sh% of ~24%, whilst the worst teams average ~20%. The second was that there is a large variation around … Continue reading →

Predicting future performance

In my last post I plotted team points in consecutive seasons to illustrate how to calculate regression to the mean. It also serves a purpose in this post so I’ve included it again, with points scored in year 1 (eg 2000-01) plotted on the x-axis and points scored in year 2 (eg 2001-02) plotted on … Continue reading →