Methodology and validation of the Team Ratings

Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Data 3. Calculations and Results 3.1 Determining the coefficients 3.2 How does the Team Rating perform compared to TSR? 3.3 How does the Team Rating perform compared to xG? 3.4 How well does the Team Rating represent the table at the end of the season? 4. Discussion 4.1 How early in … Continue reading

Predictions for the ’14-15 Football League

Caveats: 1) These predictions are all based on TSR^2*PDO, which performed pretty well in the Premiership predictions last season. That said, I’ve only looked at one seasons worth of numbers in the Football League so I won’t guarantee it works as well. 2) I have no idea how well teams that are Promoted/Relegated to each … Continue reading

On parity in the Premiership

There seems to be a near continual background discussion as to the level of parity in the Premiership. Whilst there have been various big fours around for the majority of the Premiership era, or at least since the turn of the century,the exponential improvement in Man City, coupled with upticks from both Spurs and Liverpool … Continue reading

2013-14 in the lower tiers of English football

Some basic numbers from the Championship, League one, League two, and the Conference. I’ve split the numbers into home and away games, too. As usual, all numbers are taken from the ever useful As a quick reminder, TSR (total shots ratio) is the proportion of shots taken by a team in the matches in … Continue reading

2048 in 3:50

I was getting relatively fast at 2048 so I recorded a game. It turned out to be easily the fastest time in which I’ve completed it: In other news, this guy has done it in 3:22, and I listen to five live football daily