Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Data 3. Calculations and Results 3.1 Determining the coefficients 3.2 How does the Team Rating perform compared to TSR? 3.3 How does the Team Rating perform compared to xG? 3.4 How well does the Team Rating represent the table at the end of the season? 4. Discussion 4.1 How early in … Continue reading
Predictions for the ’14-15 Football League
Caveats: 1) These predictions are all based on TSR^2*PDO, which performed pretty well in the Premiership predictions last season. That said, I’ve only looked at one seasons worth of numbers in the Football League so I won’t guarantee it works as well. 2) I have no idea how well teams that are Promoted/Relegated to each … Continue reading
On whether a team drawing games early in the season is a predictor of it drawing games over the rest of the season
Yesterday I showed that there was essentially no season to season correlation with regards to the number of games that a team drew. I also showed that there was essentially no correlation between home and away draws for a given team in a given season. I was asked on twitter about whether draws early on … Continue reading
On why calling teams ‘draw specialists’ is very likely a misnomer
As per yesterday, I don’t really feel like writing a long post but I thought this was worth sharing. I’m using the ’00-01 – ’13-14 Premiership seasons for this post. First up draws ‘this year’ plotted against draws ‘next year’. (For an explanation of the this year/next year terminology see here) There’s essentially no correlation … Continue reading
On the seeming lack of persistently good ‘home’ or ‘away’ teams
Every now and then I hear pundits refer to teams as good away teams, and there was also a lot of discussion of United’s ‘home form’ this season. I wanted to take a look at whether being better at home or away was repeatable (and thus more of a skill) or not (and thus more … Continue reading
On parity in the Premiership
There seems to be a near continual background discussion as to the level of parity in the Premiership. Whilst there have been various big fours around for the majority of the Premiership era, or at least since the turn of the century,the exponential improvement in Man City, coupled with upticks from both Spurs and Liverpool … Continue reading
A quick note on the absurd Goldman Sachs World Cup predictions
If you haven’t been on twitter this may have passed you by, but there’s been extensive and widespread panning of this set of World Cup predictions by renowned investment bankers Goldman Sachs. (The track record of Sachs can best be described as spotty). The largest source of scrutiny? Their claim that Brazil have a 48.5% … Continue reading
Data dump: The 2013-14 Premiership season
As simple as the title states. The 2012-13 version of this post can be found here. The counting metrics are presented in the form For | Against | Ratio Where ratio is equivalent to Event for / (Events for + Events against) Goals Shots on target Total shots % of total shots on target for … Continue reading
2013-14 in the lower tiers of English football
Some basic numbers from the Championship, League one, League two, and the Conference. I’ve split the numbers into home and away games, too. As usual, all numbers are taken from the ever useful football-data.co.uk. As a quick reminder, TSR (total shots ratio) is the proportion of shots taken by a team in the matches in … Continue reading
2048 in 3:50
I was getting relatively fast at 2048 so I recorded a game. It turned out to be easily the fastest time in which I’ve completed it: In other news, this guy has done it in 3:22, and I listen to five live football daily
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